State Kerry poll Bush poll Kerry actual Bush actual Red Shift
DE 58.5 41.5 53 46 10
VT 65 35 59 39 10
NH 55.4 44.6 50 49 9.8
SC 46 54 41 58 9
NE 36.8 63.3 32 67 8.5
AL 41 59 37 63 8
AK 40.5 59.5 35 62 8
NY 63 37 58 40 8
NC 48 52 44 56 8
CT 58.5 41.5 54 44 7
MA 66 34 62 37 7
RI 64 36 60 39 7
PA 54.4 45.7 51 49 6.7
MS 43.3 56.8 40 60 6.5
OH 52.1 47.9 49 51 6.2
FL 50 49 47 52 6
MN 54.5 45.5 51 48 6
AZ 47 53 44 55 5
ID 33.5 66.5 30 68 5
UT 30.5 69.5 27 71 5
VA 47 51 45 54 5
IL 57 43 55 45 4
LA 44.5 55.5 42 57 4
WI 52.5 47.5 50 49 4
WY 29 65 29 69 4
NM 51.3 48.7 49 50 3.6
WV 45.3 54.8 43 56 3.5
CO 49.1 50.9 47 52 3.2
GA 43 57 41 58 3
IN 41 59 39 60 3
MO 47.5 52.5 46 54 3
NJ 55 45 53 46 3
WA 55 45.1 53 46 2.9
IA 50.7 49.4 49 50 2.3
AR 46.6 53.4 45 54 2.2
KY 41 59 40 60 2
MI 52.5 47.5 51 48 2
OK 35 65 34 66 2
NV 49.4 50.7 48 51 1.7
ME 54.8 45.3 53 45 1.5
DC 91 9 90 9 1
MD 57 43 56 43 1
MT 39.8 60.3 39 59 -0.5
OR 51.2 48.8 52 48 -1.6
HI 53.3 46.7 54 45 -2.4
CA 54 46 55 44 -3
TN 41.5 58.5 43 57 -3
TX 37 63 38 61 -3
SD 37.8 62.3 39 60 -3.5
KS 35 65 37 62 -5
ND 34 66 36 63 -5